Has AT&T gotten better since I last wrote about their network performance at some length? Maybe not ...
August 04, 2010
July 23, 2010
July 10, 2010
June 14, 2010
April 06, 2010
One free ticket to eComm
Also, one 50% off ticket...
I'll be at the Emerging Communications Conference, eComm Americas, beginning Monday April 19th at the San Francisco Airport Marriott. If you're not familiar with eComm, I highly recommend it. Interesting people, fascinating presentations, none of those trade show pitches... Check it out.
And, as organizer and moderator of Tuesday's panel discussion on the US Broadband Plan, I get one free ticket and one 50% off ticket that I can give to a friend or colleague. If you're reading my blog, you clearly qualify. If you are interested, send me an email - send it to my initials "rbt" at my personal domain, i.e. broughturner.com.
March 31, 2010
March 21, 2010
3G in China
The inaugural issue of Gport Weekly has conveniently pulled together what's been published about 3G adoption in China. That's data from China Mobile (TD-SCDMA) and China Unicom (W-CDMA) but not China Telecom (CDMA 2000).
Obviously it is very early days for 3G adoption, but China Unicom has (at least) two things going for them.
First, W-CDMA technology is widely deployed in other parts of the world and thus well down the learning curve, so their costs should be lower. Second, China Unicom has scored the Apple iPhone deal. Whether this leads to wide adoption and direct revenues I can't guess, but it's clearly an important marketing and status advantage.
March 20, 2010
March 06, 2010
February 13, 2010
Overestimating mobile data growth
Cisco has recently updated their forecast of mobile data growth. The good news is their forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is down, from last year's forecast of 131% to their current forecast of 108% growth per year.
Unfortunately, when you look over the past 15 years of Internet traffic growth, the idea that any specific sector could exceed 100% growth for more than 1-2 years just isn't credible.
In the early days of the Internet (prior to 1994) traffic did approximately double each year. And, as Andrew Odlyzko points out in his classic study, there was a period of perhaps 18 months in 1995-1996 when US traffic grew much more rapidly, however growth reverted to 100% per year in 1997. And since then, Internet traffic growth has been slowing.
The most comprehensive data I am aware of is from Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies (MINTS) which shows the rate of Internet backbone traffic growth slowing so that in recent years (2008-2009) it has been in the range 40%-50%. For a good discussion of long term trends see Internet Growth Trends & Moore's Law.
Mobile network traffic growth
It's interesting to look back on the growth of mobile networks so far. Here are some numbers on cell sites, subscribers and voice minutes of use, extracted from CTIA data by Andrew Odlyzko.
1991 2006
subscribers 6.38 M 219.7 M
cell sites 6,685 197,576
MOUs 5.2 B 858 B
Over 15 years, voice traffic grew 165x which is 41% CAGR.
As an aside, it's interesting is to separate the growth in capacity due to more cell sites from the growth due to better wireless technology. Over the 15 year period 1991-2006, we got a 30x growth in the number of cell sites, or 25% CAGR. That suggests improvements in wireless technology (the transition from 1G AMPS to 2G and 3G systems) provided for only 5.58x of the increased traffic, or 12% CAGR. This surprised me. It can't be due to uncounted data traffic as data traffic was a small percentage of the mix in 2006. If true, it's rather embarrassing for the 2G and 3G equipment providers. Any suggestions?
There's a different view in this study of available mobile data download speeds done by Novarum Inc.
This shows available download data rates doubling in a little less than 24 months, or ~45% CAGR. However, this is measuring available bandwidth, not actual traffic. None-the-less, it's suggestive of capacity as these measurements were made on live networks during business hours.
A More Reasonable Projection
Given both Internet and wireless history, I suggest mobile Internet traffic growth over the next 5 years is more likely to be in the range 50% to 100% CAGR. There may be a 12-18 month period when it grows more than 100% per year, but only for 12-18 months and only if some alternate technology enters the mix (for example, widespread use of Wi-Fi hotspots as I suggested a few weeks ago).
February 04, 2010
February 02, 2010
Broadband Wireless — the future is 5 GHz
and eventually, spectrum from 4 GHz to 10 GHz.
Unfortunately, the mobile industry doesn't understand the implications of MIMO or beamforming, so they are asking for the wrong thing. They are asking for more spectrum near their current bands (below 2.1 GHz) or lower, e.g. in former TV bands below 700 MHz. This is all wrong.
Until recently you could say: lower frequencies "work better" meaning they go farther. But this was a technology limitation, not something in the physics. From a physical point of view, 5 GHz photons pass through the atmosphere just as well as 700 MHz photons. Today, MIMO and beamforming are correcting some of these historic technology limitations and changing everything.
- MIMO not only delivers significant performance improvement, it makes 5 GHz spectrum as useful as lower frequency spectrum for all sorts of applications.
- Beamforming delivers the next performance increment (20x and up), and it's actually easier to implement at higher frequencies.
Addressing mobile data demand
There is no doubt data consumption is growing more rapidly than mobile operators' data capacity (see slides 10 and 11 of my presentation at 4GWE). Unfortunately, US cellular operators are pressing for more low frequency radio spectrum and they are being heard in Washington. In his keynote at this year's Consumer Electronics Show, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski said an impending shortage of wireless spectrum in the U.S. will dampen future economic growth unless action is taken to fix the problem.
However, the short term issue is investment dollars not spectrum and the long term solution is new technology at much higher frequencies (above 4 GHz) rather than more spectrum for existing technology near existing bands.
Why 5 GHz spectrum is more useful than TV frequencies
Everyone know TV signals go long distances but remember than TV broadcasters use from 100 Kilowatts to 5 Megawatts ERP. That's a million to a hundred million times more signal than your mobile handset puts out. No wonder it covers a lot of distance.
There's also an equation most wireless engineers use in one form or another to calculate free space path loss which says higher frequencies have more loss. But this equation encapsulates two factors: the true path loss and the size of the antenna. It assumes a 1/2 wavelength antenna. Higher frequencies have shorter wavelengths, so it assumes the antenna gets smaller as the frequency goes up. Smaller antenna, less signal. With comparable antenna apertures, path loss in the atmosphere is the same from below 50 MHz to nearly 10 GHz. Thus in open air, 5 GHz photons go just as far as 500 MHz (US channel 19) photons or indeed photons for Channel 2 or Channel 50.Multi-path and MIMO
The reason people have had trouble with higher frequencies for the past 100+ years is "multi-path" propagation. As a signal radiates from a source, some of it goes directly to the receiving antenna but some of it goes in other directions where it may be reflected or refracted by objects it encounters. When reflected signals also reach the receiving antenna, they are slightly delayed because they traveled a slightly longer distance. In the days of over-the-air analog TV, we saw these delayed signals as "ghosts" or shadows around images on our TV screens. For digital data transmission, multi-path contributes to the "noise" in the signal-to-noise ratio. The historic problem with higher frequencies is their shorter wavelengths made it easier for them to be reflected and refracted by man-made objects like buildings, window frames and even closely spaced double pane glass surfaces.
But with MIMO, all this changes. With MIMO's multiple antennas and multiple radio front ends, it's possible to separately decode and make use of the multi-path signals. Now "multi-path" is not only removed as a source of "noise," it adds additional signal and helps carry more data.
Beamforming
A beamformer uses signal processing to control the phase and relative amplitude of the signal at each of a group of independent antenna elements. Radiation from multiple antenna elements causes a pattern of constructive and destructive interference in the resulting wavefront. This can produce a tight beam just like one from a highly directional antenna. But with beamforming, the antenna beam can be steered in software on a packet-by-packet basis.
With eight antenna elements spaced 1/2 wavelength apart (total 3.5 wavelengths), you can create a beam like this:
Highly directional beams significantly extend the usable range of a wireless system. And since the beam is computed with digital signal processing software, it can be steered to different directions in microseconds. What's more, the benefits of beamforming apply both while transmitting and while receiving. Either way, the beamformer accentuates the signal in the desired direction while surpressing signals to/from other directions.
But what about wavelength? To obtain this narrow beam, the outer antenna elements are 3.5 wavelengths apart. At 5.8 GHz, that's less than 7.5" so the whole antenna array easily fits in a ceiling mounted access point just 8" x 3" by 2". At 700 MHz, that degree of beamforming still requires 3.5 wavelengths, but wavelengths are longer so now we need 5 feet of separation — something that may fit on a cell tower, but is difficult for a microcell and impossible for a femtocell. For beamforming, higher frequencies are an advantage.
More spectrum at higher frequencies
Finally, there's a lot more spectrum potentially available at higher frequencies and, today, in the 5GHz band, there is over 555 MHz of license-exempt spectrum already available for applications like Wi-Fi. That's more spectrum than Verizon Wireless, AT&T Wireless, Sprint PCS and T-Mobile USA have, combined!
Wi-Fi blazes the trail
The Wi-Fi market place is vastly more diverse than the 3G/4G mobile operator market place, which means many new technologies show up in Wi-Fi years before they are deployed in mobile networks. That is certainly true of so-called 4G modulation (OFDM) which was deployed for Wi-Fi with 802.11a (1999) and 802.11g (2003), years ahead of WiMAX (2005) or LTE (2010).
The 802.11n specification includes MIMO and optional beamforming and silicon technology is appearing to support 4x4 MIMO with beamforming. MIMO products (2x2) have been shipping since 2007 and 4x4 MIMO in consumer products expected in the next six months. Meanwhile, many players are scrambling to deliver 11n options, including beamforming. Early systems are already deployed.
Mobile operators, please pay attention
The technology benefits of MIMO and beamforming apply to the mobile phone industry, it will just take a few years for the deliberate pace of the industry to catch up. Meanwhile, mobile phone operators should be tracking real world measurements of Wi-Fi performance to understand what spectrum they will really need five to eight years hence.
January 22, 2010
December 13, 2009
October 28, 2009
October 26, 2009
Leaving for eComm in Amsterdam - Will tweet conference talks
I'll be leaving for Amsterdam this afternoon to attend Fall eComm 2009.
I plan to record my notes as I did at the HD Communications summit in NYC in September, i.e. I'll write my notes on Twitter in real time and then, after the conference, collate the results into one giant blog post (for my own sake as much as for yours, esteemed reader).
If you're interested in live coverage, follow my tweets at: http://twitter.com/brough
Whoever and whatever you follow, I assume the common tag people will be using (as before) will be "eComm" so that's another approach...
Shameless self-promotion: My part in the conference:On Wednesday morning, I'm speaking on Open Spectrum issues. I will point out some laws of physics and emerging technology changes that, together, suggest a new, better focus for open spectrum efforts.
On Wednesday afternoon, I'm a panelist on Andy Abramson's panel, "Are current wireline and wireless eco-systems still relevant?."
And then on Friday afternoon, I'm moderating a panel that I've organized on "Spectrum 2.0 - What's really happening?"
October 25, 2009
Has AT&T Wireless data congestion been self-inflicted?
We've all heard or read stories about how iPhone usage has overloaded the AT&T Wireless network but it's likely at least some of their problems are the result of configuration errors ― specifically, congestion collapse induced by misconfigured buffers in their mobile core network.
In early September, David Reed sent this interesting message to the IRTF's "end-to-end" email list. List members include some world experts on Internet protocols. During the next couple of days, there were over 40 messages in related threads. While some of these experts were over-thinking the problem, if you are patient enough to read through the many messages, what emerges is clear. At least in the case David measured (from a hotel room in Chicago, while he had 5 bars of signal strength, using an AT&T Mercury 3G data modem in his laptop), the terrible throughput and extreme delays he experienced appear to result from overly large buffers in the routers &/or switches in AT&T's core network. Note: if you don't want to read all the list messages the short summary is: >8 second pings times! What's more the effect was bymodal: either ping times under 200 ms, or over 5 seconds.
Recently I was talking with a friend whose company continuously operates (and monitors) multiple 3G data links on the Verizon Wireless, AT&T Wireless and Sprint PCS networks. His data shows periods when the round trip time for http requests goes over 8 seconds, on the AT&T Wireless network only! I don't have a copy of his data that I can examine in detail, but when combined with David Reeds report, it certainly appears AT&T Wireless has configuration problems. If you read on you'll see this may not be the result of gross stupidity, but someone at AT&T Wireless should be a little embarrassed.
My (techie outsider's) Analysis of What's Happening
Buffers in Packet Networks
Routers (& switches) in a packet network have to include buffering in order to absorb transient traffic bursts. Unfortunately, despite decades of research and operational experience, there is no simple formula for how much buffering is optimal at any given location in a network. If you're interested in more detail, Ravi Prasad has a good review of the literature on pages 10 & 11 of his (April 2008) PhD thesis. But decades of operational experience have yielded some basic precepts and it appears AT&T Wireless is violating at least one basic precept.
The buffer in front of a congested link must induce some packet loss. TCP (the dominant Internet protocol) continuously increases it's transmit rate until it experiences packet loss, then it cuts its rate in half and enters a congestion avoidance mode. If the network becomes full but there is no packet loss, each TCP sender will keep increasing it's rate causing the network to suffer a congestion collapse.
In the case of a mobile network, the limited resource is over-the-air capacity. Backhaul may also be expensive, but it's relatively easy to over provision anything else in the operator's network. So the issue is, how big should the buffer be in the last router between the high capacity core network and the actual over-the-air data path to a subscriber? Ideally we'd like enough buffer to absorb momentary packet bursts that, averaged out, don't exceed the available over-the-air capacity. But as soon as the offered traffic exceeds the available over-the-air capacity, we want some packet loss. The complicating factor is the way 3G wireless networks schedule over-the-air traffic.
Jitter in 3G radio networksOne cellular base station serves multiple users and the quality of the connection to any specific user depends upon instantaneous wireless propagation characteristics. These can vary second by second and even millisecond by millisecond when a user is moving. To deal with over-the-air losses, the basestation (the "Node-B" in a 3G network) keeps copies of each packet until a positive acknowledgement (ACK) is received, retransmitting the packet if the ACK is not received in time. Of course retransmissions introduce delay and jitter. Furthermore, at any given instant, some users wireless links are better than others. In order to maximize the total traffic in a cell, the 3G MAC layer schedules transmissions to individual users based on who has the best instantaneous throughput. This is an efficient solution but it also introduces different amounts of jitter into each user's data path. Luckily these effects are well understood and not that severe. With HSDPA, the basic transmission time interval is 2ms so total delay variation is relatively small. This graph from Jang et al (1) is typical of measured values in an HSDPA network.
Most jitter is below 15 ms. Measurements of ping latency between 3G wireless devices and the first IP server at the edge of the mobile core network (typically the GGSN) can extend out to over a second as this graph from Mun Choon Chan and R. Ramjee (2) shows:
but most of the time, total IP latency is a few hundred milliseconds. As mentioned earlier, David Reed reported bimodal operation on the AT&T Wireless network with normal behavior yielding ping times under 200 ms.
Likely cause of AT&T's problems
So what is happening in the AT&T Wireless network when ping times go over 8 seconds? We know how a customer's IP packets are passed through an operator's mobile core network. They are tunneled all the way from the handset to the Gateway GPRS Signaling Node (GGSN), i.e. to the router where the mobile core network connects to other networks. The protocol stacks for this tunneling look like this:
More recent versions replace the ATM and AAL5 with Ethernet and IP, but the user never sees this as user IP data is tunneled across the top of the diagram (carried by PDCP and GTP-U). As a result, user traceroutes can't reveal the detail of what's happening in the core network. The first thing the user can see is the GGSN (the gateway to the next network). So we can't make conclusive measurements from outside the network, but we do know a few more things.
The bottleneck link is the over-the-air link, i.e. the connection from radio access network or UTRAN to the Mobile Statation (MS) in the above diagram, therefore the critical buffers are those at the UTRAN. In practice the UTRAN includes both the basestations (called Node-Bs) and the Radio Network Controllers (RNCs) which coordinate handovers between basestations (among other things). Because of hand-overs, the amount of data buffered at the Node-B is relatively small. It's the buffers at the RNC that must be large enough to deal with the delay variations in the radio network and yet small enough to induce packet loss when the network gets congested.
While I don't personally have experience managing a 3G HSDPA network, my impression is UTRAN buffers are normally less than 200 ms. Recently Yerima and Al-Begain presented an interesting paper (3) on buffer management in 3.5G wireless networks in which they concluded that 120 ms buffers were ideal for downlink traffic in a specific UMTS-HSDPA configuration.
Zero Packet Loss
It appears AT&T Wireless has configured their RNC buffers so there is no packet loss, i.e. with buffers capable of holding more than ten seconds of data. Zero packet loss may sound impressive to a telephone guy, but it causes TCP congestion collapse and thus doesn't work for the mobile Internet!
=================================================
References
(1) 3G and 3.5G Wireless Network Performance Measured from Moving Cars and High-Speed Trains, by Keon Jang† (keonjang@an.kaist.ac.kr), Mongnam Han† (hgma11@gmail.com), Soohyun Cho∗ (shcho1@kt.com), Hyung-Keun Ryu∗ (hkryu@kt.com), Jaehwa Lee∗ (jhlee@koren21.net), Youngseok Lee‡ (lee@cnu.ac.kr), Sue Moon† (sbmoon@kaist.edu)
† Computer Science Department, KAIST ‡ School of Computer Science & Engineering, Chungnam National University ∗ KT Central R&D Laboratory
http://an.kaist.ac.kr/~
(2) TCP/IP performance over 3G wireless links with rate and delay variation, by Mun Choon Chan and R. Ramjee, Bell Labs (presented by Jinqiang Yang)
http://wwwcsif.cs.ucdavis.
(3) Dynamic Buffer Management for Multimedia Services in 3.5G Wireless Networks, by Suleiman Y. Yerima and Khalid Al-BegainProceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2009 Vol I
WCE 2009, July 1 - 3, 2009, London, U.K.
http://www.iaeng.org/
October 21, 2009
Walled gardens have collapsed
Yesterday, Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley gave her annual state of the economy and the Internet presentation at O'Reilly's Web 2.0 conference. I wasn't there but her presentation is on line and it has some interesting insights. Many others are commenting. The one thing I'd like to draw to your attention is slide 46.
In one year (2007 -> 2008), UK users abandoned their wireless carriers' portals and went directly to numerous open mobile internet services. I'd love to see comparable data for the US.
September 25, 2009
Download speeds of GSM & 3GSM networks
ARCchart is selling a new report entitled Mobile Broadband Performance of Carrier Networks. I can't personally justify the purchase, but I notice this wonderful graph in their sample.
What does this tell us?
- First, 2G GSM data rates are usually 50-60 Kbps.
- While EDGE data rates might go as high as 250 Kbps, a good bet is 140-200 Kbps.
- And finally, deployed 3GSM networks are good for 600 Kbps to perhaps 1.4 Mbps.
- Anything faster is extremely unlikely (at least as of 2Q09).
In a world of endless hype, it's nice to have some real data.
September 23, 2009
September 22, 2009
September 21, 2009
September 15, 2009
August 31, 2009
August 25, 2009
Speaking at 4G Wireless Evolution conference next week
I'll be at 4G Wireless Evolution next week. It's being held in Los Angeles, co-located with Internet Telephony Expo (ITEXPO West 2009).
My first session is:
TUE 9/1 - 9:00-10:15am "Mobile Broadband- New Applications and New Business Models” (4G1-01) ROOM #: 501A
Whether it's LTE or WiMAX or local WISPs using combinations of Wi-Fi, WiMAX and other technologies, we are on the verge of having affordable mobile broadband in the US (it's already available in the UK and Scandinavia and becoming available elsewhere in the EU). What services can be provided over the top and what services need or can benefit from operator capabilities (QoS, security, ...)? The iPhone store, Android store and similar initiatives suggest power is shifting away from the operators and into the hands of application developers and the end user. How can operators leverage their core capabilities (QoS, security, billing, customer relationships, call detail, ...) to provide applications and remain relevant to their customers?
And the second session a day later:
WED 9/2 - 8:30-9:45am "Our G-enealogy” (4G3-01) ROOM #: 501A
The Generations do not flash cut from one version to another so 4G should not be considered an end point, but a process. Looking at the history of cellular technology helps us gain an understanding of the converging 4G model of the world. Based on cellular technology, and the progress to date, how long will it take for Long Term Evolution (LTE) to be delivered? Where do we stand in the process of delivering wireless broadband services?
If you will be at 4GWE or ITEXPO, please say hello.
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July 18, 2009
July 17, 2009
Apple sets itself up to fail ― again
Yesterday, Apple blocked Palm Pre smart phones from accessing iTunes. The Pre smart phone has been able to access Apple's on-line music store since it went on sale in early June, but apparently Palm didn't have a formal deal with Apple. This is bad for Palm, and for Pre users, but it's also bad for Apple. Apple is holding onto their integrated solution just when the market is about split into segments, and explode!
But of course this is not the first time Apple has been in a leadership position and lost it.
In 1980, Apple controlled 50% of the emerging PC market and had dominate mind share. Over the next 15 years they became a niche player, not because IBM entered the market, but because they clung to an integrated solution while the exploding market split into segments (chips, PC chassis, peripherals, operating systems, applications and more) with different players in each segment.
Today, Apple has dominate mind share and significant market share in on-line music with iTunes and the iPod devices, and in smart phones with the iPhone and the iPhone application store. Apple has captured the hearts and minds of people around the globe and gotten real money from at least tens of millions of wallets. A big reason for their success has been Apple's complete integrated solution that provides a seamless experience. There is no doubt the iPhone is the best device for mobile Internet access and, in part, that's because Apple controls everything about the user interface (even while opening application programming to hundreds of thousands of 3rd parties).
But the market is just beginning. Our mobile devices are where PCs were in 1980. As this market explodes, it's going to break into segments, with specialists in each segment. Already, a half-dozen application stores have been announced, each hoping to trump the iPhone application store. MP3 players abound, particularly in Asia. Indeed, most youth in Asia do not have smart phones (iPhone or otherwise) and their music players do not come from Apple.
Apple could leverage their leadership in iTunes, iPods and the iPhone to define the future market segments and dominate at least one segment. Indeed, with internal functional separation (separate profit and loss units), they might aspire to dominate two or three segments. But if they stick to the integrated solution which won them their fame, they will repeat what they did with their 1980 PC leadership ― fritter it away and end up a niche player once again.
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July 16, 2009
eComm in Amsterdam ― shameless self promotion
I've just wrapped up a focused effort that delayed blogging and many other things. As a result, I finally submitted the detailed description for my plenary slot at eComm Fall 2009 which will be happening in Amsterdam October 28th-30th. My abstract is not up on the website yet, but hopefully the next few weeks will bring details on my talk and many others. For now, let me just say my title is
Stealth Approaches to Legislating Open Spectrum
in which I propose what I hope is a novel approach to dramatically expanding the capabilities and commercial success of license-exempt consumer devices.
This will be the first time eComm has been held in Europe but, based on the first two eComm conferences (2008 and Spring 2009), this is the meeting for the future of communications. It's not a trade show and it's not a mass event. Instead, it's three days of rapid paced information ― high level, insightful and non-commercial. Even more important, the people are very, very interesting. It's not cheap, but it costs less if you sign up now (especially if you sign up before July 21st). What's more, because I'm such an enthusiast, and I'm on the conference's advisory board, I've been given a discount code. For an additional 20% off type in "BroughTurner" as the eComm discount code, i.e. where the registration form says "Click here to enter a promotional code."
I hope to see you in Amsterdam in October.
Opportunity Doesn't Always Knock. Sometimes It Calls.
The mammoth telecom industry ― fixed and cellular ― is in the process of being re-written. You can stand on the side and be written into history or join with the growing community that's writing the future.
Opportunities have never been so great ― to influence how humanity connects, communicates and collaborates and to profit from radical restructuring.
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March 03, 2009
More cloud-based telephony services
One thing (of many) that struck me during this morning's session at eComm 2009 was multiple companies going after cloud-based communications platform services. Three which had their public launch announcements today were Grid.com, Tropo.com from Voxeo and Mobivox. They're not the first to tackle this area and they each have a somewhat different focus, but there's a clear interest in producing Web 2.0 service platforms that developers can use to access communications services without hassle.
Grid.com is from a couple of developers who were frustrated that they could mash up an application quickly but then had to spend months getting SMS short codes and other communications services.
Tropo.com is an offshoot of Voxeo and makes the underlying Voxeo platform services available to Web 2.0 developers.
Similarly, Mobivox has launched a cloud services platform based on the platform they build for the Mobivox service.
There is certainly room for someone to get this right. On the other hand, there must be a dozen companies going after portions of this space. The first round were telephony calling platforms like CallFire, Angel.com and five9.com focused on allowing developers to access traditional calling, switching and IVR platforms - call centers and business process automation were early targets. It will be interesting to watch the evolving focus of this new round of entrants.
February 10, 2009
Wireless Tutorial slides posted
The slides we used for our four part Wireless Tutorial at the 4G Wireless Evolution conference in Miami last week are now up on the web.
History and Evolution of Mobile Radio
Part One covers the history of mobile wireless from the earliest days
to the latest 4G technology.
Part one is also available as a webinar recorded in 3 sections last fall.
IEEE Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing
Part two covers the IEEE wireless systems: WiFi, WiMAX and more...
Mobile Broadband: New Applications and New Business Models
Part three covers emerging world of mobile broadband access and some of the applications it enables.
White Spaces and Open spectrum Issues
Finally, part four focuses on Open spectrum and the recent decision by the FCC to permit unlicensed devices to operate on unoccupied TV channels - the so called TV White Spaces. In the end, there's alot more that will be possible eventually...
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February 02, 2009
Wireless Tutorial - 2G, 3G, 4G and beyond - in Miami today
I'm in Miami for the 4G Wireless Evolution conference which is being held in conjunction with Internet Telephony Expo. Fanny Mlinarsky and I are kicking off the conference with a comprehensive wireless tutorial starting at 10:30 this morning. So no pictures of Miami Beach or warm weather until after our all day event is complete.
January 26, 2009
Where's the money in Communications for 2009 & beyond?
Sorry, no magic answer. But I look forward to eComm 2009 to provide a lot of ideas in the first week of March. The speaker lineup is posted and the list is both impressive and diverse. Like last year, the format is a single track with a veritable firehose of information, mostly in 15 minute and 5 minute talks.
Based on last year and what I know of the speakers on this year's list, it fair to say Lee Dryburgh has done an excellent job of picking interesting and bleeding edge speakers. I'm also on the speakes' list and I have to say I'm working hard to make sure my 15 minutes lives up to expectations.
Even though this is a terrible time for conferences, eComm has signed up an impressive list of sponsors. The facility (The San Francisco Airport Marriott Hotel) is larger this year and so there is still room for additional attendees, but early bird prices end this week. Also the extra 20% off you can get my mentioning my name ends this Friday, so if you are thinking of attending sign up this week.
So here's the deal, if you mention my name you get 20% off. More specifically, if you
enter the promo code "BroughTurner" (case-sensitive) at the appropriate
point during registration, you'll get 20% off the registration fee.
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December 15, 2008
Can You See Me Now? Video-enabled call centers...
Some weeks ago, CRM magazine asked for an article on video-enabled call centers. This idea is a bit futuristic for the US market, but such call centers are actually showing up in Asia and the EU, at least experimentally.
Think of calling a help line and being asked to point your video telephony handset at the control panel of the appliance that's causing problems. That's becoming possible in some Asian and EU markets where most 3G handsets support video telephony and 3G penetration is well over 50% (and much higher in Japan).
In any event the article,
is up on the DestinationCRM website.
December 03, 2008
Best conference bet for 2009 ― eComm 2009, March 3-5, San Francisco
I attended a number of conferences in 2008, both interesting and not so interesting. One conference stands out, for the range of interesting speakers and the variety of interesting people I met. That was the first Emerging Communications Conference, eComm 2008, organized by Lee Dryburgh. Many of talks from this conference are available on Slideshare and as podcasts on IT Conversations.
eComm 2009 is scheduled to take place at the San Fransico Airport Marriott, March 3-5, 2009. I highly recommend you check it out.
This is not a trade show with vendors hawking today's products and multiple tracks full of vendor product pitches.
Presenters have been chosen for the quality of their proposals: is it new? is it disruptive? what will the audience learn? (As an adviser, I've been in on those discussions). Like last year, the format is one track spread over three days, with 15 minute presentations, 5 minute lightning presentations, panel discussions and social time. It all adds up to a veritable fire hose of information.
There's a list of speakers here. Major topics for 2009 (so far) include:
* Mobile Social Networking (MoSoSo)
* Open Handsets & the Open Ecosystem
* Both Voice and Video Evolution
* Convergence of Media with Personal Communications
* Open Spectrum
* Open Communication Platforms
* Leveraging Cloud Computing
* Social Computing
* Towards 4G Wireless
* P2P and Decentralization of Telecoms
* Communications enabling business processes, especially B2C
* New Forms of Contactability and Connectability
* Emerging Markets
And last, but by no means least, if you mention my name you get 20% off. More specifically, if you enter the promo code "BroughTurner" (case-sensitive) at the appropriate point during registration, you'll get 20% off the registration fee. This works now, while early bird rates are in effect, and I'm told it will also work right up to the last minute ("late", not on-site registration), although then it's 20% off the full conference rate, and only if the event is not sold out!
I hope to see you there.
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October 22, 2008
A reason why Asia leads in mobile apps and is advancing with Internet apps
A picture is worth a thousand words. Thanks to Ben Joffe for this picture, which is slide 21 of his presentation, The Digital Silk Road.
Of course, this is a simplification, as it misses China.
China doesn't have 3G yet but they have more mobile phones than any other country and they are fast to adopt what can work on 2.5G. For example, the Chinese adopted ringback tones very very rapidly after the application emerged in Korea -- years ahead of Europe or the US. And, even at 2.5G speeds today, China supports a rich variety of mobile applications.
Likewise, while China's relative proportion of Internet connections above 5 Mbps is relatively small, there are more broadband Internet connections in China than in the US and China is adding new fiber Internet connections faster than any other country in the world.
October 20, 2008
October 16, 2008
October 10, 2008
October 09, 2008
October 01, 2008
September 24, 2008
eComm 2009
The eComm 2009 website is live.
As some of you already know, the date was picked through a feedback process conducted on Facebook. It's March 3-5, 2009 in California.
I attend a lot of conferences and trade shows and, as I look back at the past year, the most interesting conference I attended was eComm 2008. Typically conference organizers start with a list of sponsors and/or exhibitors and then do their best to build an interesting conference, given their primary objective of facilitating sponsors' and exhibitors' promotional efforts.
For eComm, Lee Dryburgh (the principal organizer behind eComm), started with an idea ― emerging communications ― then went after speakers who had something relevant to say and were known to be good at saying it, finally he sought sponsors and attendees interested in discussing emerging communications. The result was a really interesting set of talks and a fascinating set of people in attendence.
If you are at all interested in where communications is going, subscribe to the eComm 2009 blog and think about attending eComm 2009.
September 15, 2008
September 06, 2008
August 28, 2008
Why the Danes text while the US talks
Recently I can by some interesting data on monthly voice and SMS usage in Denmark. But first let me set the stage. It's well known that people are price sensitive ― as per minute prices fall, telephony usage goes up. It's also true that people prefer flat rate pricing as it reduces their mental transaction costs. This graph (from Andrew Odlyzko) shows what happened to mobile minutes of use when flat rates were introduced in the US.
AT&T launched their Digital One-Rate plan in 1998 offering a block of minutes for one monthly fee with no long distance or roaming complications. This plan was so popular that all operators were forced to respond, with the results visible in the graph above.
Today US mobile voice usage is approaching 800 minutes per month and that's average. Leap Wireless and MetroPCS subscribers use 1500-2000 minutes per month. One wonders how much time people can spend on the phone...
So here's the new (to me) data from Denmark.
The Danish regulator has a wonderful set of statistics available in half-year increments. Those above are from 2H02 thru 2H07. Voice minutes are out-going traffic in millions of minutes per period (6 months). The population of Denmark is 5.5 million (82% are over the age of 14) so this represents ~330 voice minutes and ~225 messages per person per month.
Wireless minutes of use continue to rise, but fixed line minutes are falling faster so total voice minutes are falling. But total person-to-person communications is still increasing because SMS and E-Mail usage has soared, growing to roughly 40% of all communications.
This is very interesting as flat rate pricing for monthly bundles of SMS messages was introduced in Denmark in 2002. Meanwhile, Danish mobile voice calls are mostly charged per minute (very typical in Europe) and are expensive compared to the US.
So price matters, but flat rate monthly bundles (rather than per minute or per message charges) is even more important in driving usage.
August 20, 2008
August 11, 2008
Asian innovation in mobile social networking
I'm continually amazed at the East-West cultural gap (that's between Asia and the US/EU, not between Boston and Silicon Valley). It goes both ways, but as an American Internet and mobile enthusiast with Asian connections, I'm usually struck by US ignorance of Asian Internet and mobile services.
Today, China has the worlds largest mobile population and the worlds largest Internet population. Korea is a leader in high speed broadband, as is Japan. Japan is also the #2 economy in the world and arguably the world's leading mobile society. Surely it's worth the time to understand what's happening in their markets!
For a change, over the weekend, I stumbled on an excellent presentation, What Asia can tell us about mobile social networks, from O'Reilly's conference, Graphing Social Patterns East, held in June in Washington DC. The presenter was Benjamin Joffe who resides in Beijing where, among other things, he's the founder of Mobile Monday Beijing.
Some of his numbers may be a year old, but the impact is clear. Asian services like QQ (740M registered users), CyWorld (used by 90% of young Koreans) and Mixi (10M mobile users in Japan) typically started before Facebook, have many more features, and are profitable!
Here's Benjamin's features list:
Check out the entire presentation. Well worth the effort!
July 03, 2008
Another analyst under estimates mobile subscriber growth
From a recent press release
Worldwide mobile subscriptions will rise from 3.9 billion in 2008 to 5.6 billion in 2013, according to a new Strategy Analytics report.
Sorry guys, you're forecast has fallen into the same trap as almost all the five year forecasts I've seen since 1995. About the only credible analyst's statement in this area is one by Mark Newman, head of research at Informa, who said (in 2007):
The mobile industry has constantly outperformed even the most optimistic forecasts for subscriber growth.
The problem is analysts' forecasts are consistently pessimistic. Consider Strategy Analytics' numbers. They project 1.7 billion new subscribers in 5 years (60 months). By every measurement I've seen, mobile subscription growth has been over 50M per month at least since 2004-2005. For example, 2 billion subscriptions in September 2005 and 3.3 billion subscriptions in November 2007 comes out at 52 million new subscriptions per month. If you believe Strategy Analytics' forecast of 3.9 billion by the end of 2008, that's 54 million more per month for the balance of 2008. If we merely sustain current rates, we will hit Strategy Analytics' December 2013 forecast in just 31 months, i.e. in July 2011. So they expect current growth rates to decline rather substantially in coming years.
Why would they think this? I haven't spoken with anyone at Strategy Analytics, but in discussions with other analysts over the past ten+ years, a frequent answer is "current growth rates will have to slow as we're running out of people who can afford mobile phone service." Wrong! This is the view of someone who doesn't understand Moore's law. Whether it's transistor density or wireless performance, innovation drives exponential improvements in price-performance. Per-capita GDP is improving slowly, but the cost of mobile phone infrastructure and mobile handsets is dropping substantially every year. Today, those at the bottom of the pyramid are in a position to at least use a phone and increasingly to acquire their own mobile phone.
In addition to innovation ― at work since the introduction of mobile services ― political obstacles are falling in many countries. Since 2000 it's become clear, mobile phone adoption brings significant economic advantages, and the best way to get mobile phone adoption is to attract multiple competitive mobile phone operators to your country. Increasingly, even the most backward dictators are realizing there's more money to be made taxing multiple competitive mobile phone services than in keeping all the profits from one government phone company. So country after country are encouraging competitive mobile phone operators and allowing substantial foreign investment. This political trend serves to increase mobile phone adoption rates.
Of course, adoption rates will saturate at some point. When might that be? The best evidence we have is for 2G and 2.5G services in developed countries. It appears things slow down a bit around 120 subscriptions per 100 people. Of course this may change with 3G. It's too early to tell.
Technology adoption generally follow an S-curve:
If saturation is at 120 or above, and we're currently around 50, we have at least another five years of rapid growth. Perhaps a five year forecast made in 2013 will be justified in projecting a decrease in adoption rates. But by then we'll also understand the impact of 3G. Who knows? 3G may drive things even faster.
Or perhaps by 2013, I will have a single mobile data subscription for a gateway device on my body, that in turn provides connectivity for all my other devices.
In any event, I expect 5.6 billion mobile phone subscriptions by the summer of 2011 and more than 6 billion by mid 2012.
June 26, 2008
June 25, 2008
Webinar tomorrow on mobile value-added services
I'll be presenting a webinar entitled "Trends in Mobile Value-Added Services" through TMCnet.com tomorrow Thursday, June 26, 2008 at 11:00am EDT (i.e. GMT-4).
Two-thirds of the presentation addresses global trends and the remainder touches on four specific services where NMS Communications has specific (and sometimes extensive) experience, i.e.
- Voice SMS
- Ringback Tones
- Mobile TV
- Video SMS
There's a blurb from the TMCnet marketing group here and you can register for the webinar here.
Please join me tomorrow.
May 25, 2008
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