Mobile Networks to Cover 90% of the World's Population by 2010 - Despite Universal Access programs

I missed 3GSM Asia in Singapore October 16-20th, but NMS was exhibiting so I got a few reports.  One thing of interest to me was Tuesday morning's keynote session where Andrew Dymond, managing director of Intelecon Research & Consultancy, described Intelecon's report on Universal Access, i.e. mobile coverage everywhere, done for the GSM Association.  I downloaded the report, printed it out and, only just now, finished reading it.

The report puts global mobile subscribers at 2.5B and revenues at US$ 700M.  Surprising to me was their estimate that mobile coverage already reachs 80% of the world's population.  Considering some of the remote locations where our AccessGate products are being deployed, clearly coverage is expanding at a great rate.  The report projects 90% of the world's population will be in reach of a mobile signal by 2010.

But the primary reason the GSMA commissioned this report was to look into the efficacy of Universal Access Funds (UAC).  These are government programs that aim to provide everyone with access to telephone service.  That's different from Universal Service Funds (USF) such as those in the US which aim to get actual telephones for everyone.

The essence of the report is that most UAF programs are broken.  (Uganda and Columbia are rare exceptions).  Most of the UAF programs are hindering rather than helping improve access to telephone service.  According to the study, governments have taken in ~$6B so far, a third of which has come from mobile operators.  But they sitting on most of this money ($4.4B) and, of the $1.5B that has been redistributed so far, only five per cent ($75m) has gone to mobile.  Most has gone to incumbent fixed line PTTs

Obviously this is annoying to the GSMA, but they are quite rightly annoyed.  Wireless is the most effective way to reach remote populations and mobile telephony is the most cost effective way to deliver telephony.

Two good points were:

• coverage is expanding anyway, despite the extra taxation that most UAF programs represent.
• Uganda shows that one could design a program that was beneficial.

So how does it work in Uganda?  The secret appears to be competitive bidding among all potential operators to see who will extend service to an unserved area in exchange for the lowest subsidy. Today, mobile signals reach 96% of the population in Uganda.  And, while many are too poor to afford their own mobile handset, they now have shared access and can make and receive phone calls.

Comments

[Joanna Hindle]

Dear Mr. Turner,

I'm writing with a quick correction to your Oct 28, 2006 posting in which you write the following:
"One thing of interest to me was Tuesday morning's keynote session where Andrew Dymond, managing director of Intelcom Research, described Intelcom's report on Universal Access, i.e. mobile coverage everywhere, done for the GSM Association."

In fact, our company name is Intelecon Research & Consultancy, not Intelcom -- a small error, but one that you undoubtedly understand is close to our hearts! Further, Andy thought you might be interested to know that the successful Uganda USF was designed and implemented with the assistance of Intelecon.

Most kind regards,
Joanna Hindle
Administrator, Intelecon Research & Consultancy Ltd.
400-1505 West 2nd Avenue, Vancouver, BC V6H 3Y4 Canada

[brough]

Joanna, Done!
I'm always happy to fix typos. Also, thanks for the information on Uganda's USF.

[AKANKWASA JOEL ROBERT]

i have reviewed your report and clearly internalized it but my problem remains whether all mobile telecoms companies were considered

AKANKWASA JOEL ROBERT

MBARARA UGANDA