I had an interesting discussion with Katrin Verclas of MobileActive.org as an event last month covering a range of topics including the prospects for mobile web access in emerging markets. As a result, she and Patty Mechael pressed me to write up my thoughts on the mobile web today and over the next few years.
Very roughly, I'm depressed about today's still prevalent walled gardens, but very optimistic that open mobile access to the Internet will become available in coming years. You can read my reasoning here.
Brough - I tend to agree with you on good, optimistic days, though it seems to very much depend where you are in the world. Here is one counter-opinion from someone who should know - Nathan Eagle from EPROM/MIT: http://mobileactive.org/mobile-web-not-helping-developing-world-and-what-we-can-do-about-it-guest-writer-nathan-eagle
Interesting discussion from a development and social change perspective, which I think, is probably a bit different than from an industry perspective.
Thanks again, Brough!
Posted by: Katrin Verclas | October 09, 2008 at 02:21 PM
Katrin,
I understand and agree with Nathan's view. He's reflecting reality, both last year when he wrote it and still today, in Africa and in many other emerging markets. My article is talking about what we will see in developed countries over the next few years and everywhere (including Africa) within a decade.
Ten years can make an enormous difference. For now, the positive thing you can say about telecommunications in Africa is it's dramatically better than it was five years ago. :-)
Posted by: Brough Turner | October 10, 2008 at 04:11 PM