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July 03, 2008



You are assuming that all the billions of subscritions were (a) reported accurately and really exist and (b) are actually live subscritions. There's seems to be endemic over repoting of mobile subscriber numbers, which seem to be abased on SIMs issued rather than genuine subscriptions.

Brough Turner


Thanks but no! My comments apply to analysts who are counting and forecasting subscriptions (SIM cards) and to analysts who are estimating and forecasting the numbers of actual individuals with one or more mobile phone subscriptions. I recognize these are different numbers. In the blog post above, all numbers are estimates and forecasts for subscriptions, i.e. for SIM cards.

If you know of any five year forecast of either subscriptions or subscribers that was actually correct five years later, I'd love to hear of it.

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