Communications

edushi.com – Possibly the best city maps in the world?

After my last post (on sanyamap.com), Tariq Mufti pointed me at an even better source of cities maps, also in China.  It's Edushi.com (roughly E-City in Chinese) and they currently cover 24 cities. The title of this post is copied from Dr Andrew Hudson-Smith who's written up edushi.com in some detail.

Edushi.com is owned by and uses technology developed by Hangzhou Aladdin Information & Technology Company.  Their English language description of the technology includes this:

Aladdin has first put forward the new concept of Internet application: Edushi(or rather, E-City) which is a corresponding result of the local governments’ encouragement of building “digitalized cities”. As a platform for 3-D emulation online-interaction, E-City is based in the WEB GIS and virtual-real technology.

"Digitalized city" integrates E-map, E-yellow page (city telephone directory), E-business, virtual community etc. functions.

"Edushi" allocates various information of the city based on geo information of the real city.

"Edushi" does not only emulate the architectural shape, geological status of the real city, but also vividly reproduce the entire city as well as the social activity and economical activity on Internet.

They also mention support for mobile phones, in-car navigation, a community information platform and a digital TV terminal application.

While I don't read Chinese, if you float your cursor over the list of cities at the top of this page, you can see their URLs in standard ASCII.  Using this approach I was able to go to the city view for Xian and navigate to some tourist sites that I have visited.

All and all, a fascinating combination of 3D maps, virtual reality, directories and current city culture.

China's Internet, at least as interesting as anything in the west

A common misunderstanding in the west suggests Internet entrepreneurs in China just copying whatever works in the west.  I'm sure that's true in some cases, but I've written in the past about peer-to-peer TV where Chinese companies were several years ahead of Joost and others in the west.

Today, I noticed a fascinating post by a blogger operating under the name Sun Bin.  He points to a mapping/ virtual earth website for Sanya, a resort city in Hainan province in southern China.  If you are proficient in Chinese,  try the website yourself.  Otherwise, grok this:

Yes, this is just one city so it's hardly on the scale of Google Earth or Microsoft Virtual Earth, but the user interface looks very interesting as it combines satellite photography, street maps, SimCity graphics and actual photographs of buildings, all in one beautiful graphic.

My point is not that Chinese entrepreneurs are ahead or behind, but that there are more Internet users in China than in the US, and the entrepreneurs that cater to them are smart and are doing interesting things that we seldom hear about in the English language blogsphere.

I follow a few bloggers, like Sun Bin and Gang Lu, who cover China in English (at least part of the time) and I try to maintain contacts with individuals I know in China, but it hardly makes up for not being able to read Chinese.

Emerging Communications Conference 2008

I'll in California quite a bit in March and April, but the highlight is my first week, when I'll be speaking at a new conference, eComm 2008, March 12-14.  While the conference in new, the community is established and fascinating.  eComm 2008 being put together by Lee Dryburgh, who was on the program committee for O'Reilly's eTel conferences.  When O'Reilly cancelled eTel 2008, Lee took the initiative to keep that incredible community alive.  He was soon joined by many others.

Click through the logo at the left for conference info.  Right now there's a board of advisors, an incredible list of speakers with more on the way, a wiki and a Facebook group with 170 friends!

The first thing I look for in a conference is interesting people, then new ideas.  eComm promises an abundance of each.  The focus is next generation personal communications and the schedule is set up for rapid fire delivery inlcuding many 5 minute and 15 minute sessions.  As far as new ideas goes, this will be a fire hose!

*** Correction: 12/21 ***

The conference is being held in the Computer History Museum in Mountain View.  This easily beats the typical conference facility, but it means there are only 300 paid admissions available.  Registration has opened, here.  If you register before the end of 2007, the $1495 registration fee is marked down to $1195.

I look forward to seeing you there.

Tracing Internet connections by inter-packet timing correlation

Susan Crawford's post The Auction, the Cops, and Comcast, highlights a request from the US Department of Justice to the FCC that is likely to result in an FCC Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM).  As I read her post, I recalled an interesting paper on surveillance.  Here's the relevant part of Susan's post (bold italic highlighting is mine):

The NPRM, if it follows the DOJ’s request, will suggest (among other things) that all of these providers should build their routers and network hardware to provide “packet activity reporting” for all packets crossing their networks, and physical location information for all of their customers at all times. It will also suggest that very fine-grained timing information is needed - something that the internet and its applications don’t provide at the moment. “Packet activity reporting” means that the broadband provider will need to know the destination IP address and port number for everything happening on its network.

The idea is that these designs will help law enforcement when they want to carry out a request for call-identifying information.

A few months ago I happen to read a 2002 paper by Xinyuan Wang, Douglas S. Reeves and S. Felix Wu entitled Inter-Packet Delay Based Correlation for Tracing Encrypted Connections Through Stepping Stones.

I should comment that, when I travel in China, I use TOR (The Onion Router)
to bypass the Great China Firewall.  TOR works by passing your traffic through a series of intermediate routers, with intermediate connections encrypted, so a third party observer can't tell whose traffic is going where.  This is mildly useful to me when I'm in China, but it can be life saving for dissident writers living in totalitarian states. 

So it was somewhat distressing when I read the paper by Wang et al.

From their abstract:

... we address the problem of tracing encrypted connections through stepping stones. The incoming and outgoing connections through a stepping stone must be correlated to accomplish this. We propose a novel correlation scheme based on inter-packet timing characteristics of both encrypted and unencrypted connections. We show that (after some filtering) inter-packet delays (IPDs) of both encrypted and unencrypted, interactive connections are preserved across many router hops and stepping stones.

and from their conclusion:

Our correlation metric does not require clock synchronization, and allows correlation of measurements taken at widely scattered points. Our method also requires only small packet sequences (on the order of a few dozen packets) for correlation. We have found that after some filtering, IPDs (Inter-Packet Delay) of both encrypted and unencrypted, interactive connections are largely preserved across many hops stepping-stones. We have demonstrated that both encrypted and unencrypted, interactive connections can be effectively correlated and differentiated based on IPD characteristics.

So it's clear what the Department of Justice has in mind.  Of course, if the Department of Justice gets this through, it will just be an added expense on all ISPs (and thus on their customers, i.e. you and me).  It won't actually work against the bad guys (or the good guys) as it's fairly simple to imagine an outbound packet scheduler that introduces jitter into each flow at each onion router.

Singapore's Next Generation National Broadband Network

My post on Tuesday was in response to a Singapore government press release that used the phrases "structural separation" and "passive network." 

Subsequently I've been pointed to this website where the Singapore government has posted the qualification documents, mainly document IDA(PQ)-010V2, dated 11 December 2007.  It appears the actual RFP is only available to qualified bidders, but the qualification document has good information on the project structure.

Here is their view of structural separation:

Here is the supporting text:

3.3.2  There will be three distinct types of functional entities operating on the NGNBN.  At the lowest layer, the NetCo would be responsible for the design, build and operation of the NGNBN's passive infrastructure, which includes ducts and wirelines.  The NetCo would offer this passive infrastructure at a wholesale, non-discriminatory and cost-competitive basis (Layer 1 Open Access) to the OpCo(s).  The NetCo's passive infrastructure would be rolled out extensively throughout Singapore.  The NetCo infrastructure is expected to be capital-intensive with massive implementation effort.

To me that implies multiple OpCos can get access to dark fiber.  Hopefully private companies, who want their own dark fiber from one building to another, would also be able to lease dark fiber.  However, they don't make this clear so we'll have to wait and see. 

Only the NetCo portion is covered by the current RFP.  The Singapore government expects the NetCo piece to be built and operated by a private company or consortium, and they are prepared to provide up to S$750M (US$521M) in grants to make this happen.  Responses are due 25 March 2008 and will be evaluated based on:

• Attractiveness of business plan to industry
• Quality of network infrastructure
• Level of Government grant
• Financial proposition and strength of bidder

This is one to watch!

Rate of growth of traffic at the Amsterdam Internet Exchange

Here's a great historical graph, from page 28 here, showing the growth in traffic at the Amsterdam Internet Exchange.

By my take off from this graph, there was 1000x growth in nine years.  That means traffic doubles every 11 months.  While this is only one data point, it's new to me and fairly up-to-date.  It's also roughly consistent with the 12 month doubling rate mentioned in my earlier post.

19th century solution to 21st century patent problems?

Last weekend I read a fascinating article by Prof. Gerard Magliocca of the Indiana University School of Law entitled Blackberries and Barnyards: Patent Trolls and the Perils of Innovation, 82 Notre Dame L. Rev. 1809 (2007).

Prof. Magliocca compares 19th century problems with "patent sharks" to today's problems with "patent trolls" and suggests the only politically acceptable path out of today's problems may be the path taken out of the 19th century problems, i.e. elimination of the class of patents that triggered the problems. He provides tons of interesting context, but here's one of his proposals,

If the historical parallel between sharks and trolls rings true, then the obvious implication is that repeal is the only real answer to the troll problem. This is does not mean that we should wipe out all technology patents. A more discriminating approach would focus on the most problematic of these patents, which deal with software and business methods. Critics of the recent expansion of patent subject matter into these areas might describe this “experiment” as a disaster on a par with the design patent fiasco of the 1860s.

Among the background I found most interesting was the nature of the arguments in the 1880s.  Many put the blame on the "reckless methods of the patent office."  Sound familiar?

And, just as today's Biotech industry is opposed to any patent reform, the 19th century had powerful advocates for the status quo, including Thomas Edison, who argued that any revision of the patent statues would "strongly tend to discourage and prevent perfection of useful inventions by those most fitted for that purpose..."

Yes, it's sixty pages (double spaced) with tons of footnotes, but if you skip the footnotes and skim the text, there's plenty here to interest any engineer who's had occasion to learn the words "patent troll.".

Structural Separation for Singapore's Next Generation Broadband Network

Two different sources have pointed me to this extremely interesting press release from Singapore on how they are contracting for their next generation National Broadband Network (NBN).

8. IDA’s findings indicate that a next generation broadband network will
contribute to Singapore’s continued economic success. It is also critical for the Next
Gen NBN to provide effective open access to downstream operators. This will
create a more vibrant and competitive broadband market. As a policy, we have
therefore decided to adopt separation between the different levels of the Next Gen
NBN to achieve effective open access. The RFP to construct the network will
therefore provide for structural separation of the passive network operator from the
downstream operators. If necessary, the government is also prepared to consider
legislation to achieve such effective open access for downstream operators in
the next generation broadband market.

As I've pointed out in the past, the real "natural monopoly" is the right-of-way between individual buildings and network aggregation points.  Given the rapid pace at which electronic components are evolving, it makes sense to focus competition there, i.e. the government contracts for a "passive network" a.k.a. "dark fiber" and makes that available to any ISP or enterprise (or potentially any individual) that wants network connectivity.

Structural separation has been discussed in many contexts and many countries, but frequently with the wrong point chosen for that separation.  Given the chart above, it's clear that just above the "dark fiber" layer is the only place that makes sense.

Singapore knows what they are doing here!

Near universal access to telecommunications, even at the bottom of the pyramid

In a paper prepared for a conference in Sri Lanka last week, Harsha de Silva and Ayesha Zainudeen report on an extensive survey they did of telecom users at the "bottom of the pyramid" (BOP) in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Thailand.  Most interesting (to me) was their conclusion:

This study finds that almost everyone at the bottom of the pyramid in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Philippines and Thailand have access to telecommunication services without having to spend any significant amount of time or money in getting to a telephone.

More specifically,

...of all those contacted (through the random selection process), more than 90 percent in all countries had used a phone at least once during the preceding three months...

Most of these people don't own their own phones, but they have access through friends, neighbors, family members or a public phone service. [The photo, courtesy of Kiwanja.net, shows a phone shop in Uganda.]

As recently as 2000 I was saying (with some justification) that more than half the people on earth had never made a phone call (at any time in their lives). 

Having near universal coverage and 90% usage is remarkable, and very encouraging progress.  Of course, it's due almost entirely to the spread of mobile phones, not the result of universal access programs.

Social benefits outweigh economic benefits

The second item that struck me was the summary of reasons why people wanted their own handsets.

I've written many times about the economic benefits of phone service but it turns out, when you survey actual users at the BOP, they perceive the benefits of phone ownership to be:

1.  increased security (a phone is helpful in an emergency), and
2.  better ability to maintain social relationships

As de Silva and Zainudeen put it, "users at the BOP do not seem to see how instant access to important information might be helpful in making decisions that could enhance one’s earning capacity or how gaining an hour (otherwise spent personally conveying a message by foot) could help reduce transactions costs."

As they go on to suggest, this is clearly an area where telecom operators could run marketing campaigns that would benefit all parties.

Who will unify my communications?

2 email accts/ 7 email aliases/ 4 IM accts/ SMS/ this blog/ Bloglines (238 feeds)/ BlogRovR (480 feeds)/ LinkedIn/ Facebook/ Myspace/ Twitter/ 23 other "social" networks/ 3 PSTN accts/ 2 mobile accts/ Skype/ FWD/ ... 

...accessed via 3 different PCs and 2 different mobile handsets, at least on most days.

These are not just information flows — most have associated directories of friends, business associates and other acquaintances.

One year ago I wrote:

...  I already run four instant messaging clients on my laptop.  A single client would be nice, but it's not that important.  Once we finally learn how availability should work from an existing player like Skype or from an entirely new overlay network (as Skype was a few years ago), then we can worry about consolidation.

Now I'm not so sure. 

Who will aggregate this flood for me, in some convenient and semantically meaningful way?

Where is the tool that lets me organize my diverse connections?

There's an opportunity here for a new class of solutions...

Ringback Tones Adoption Rates — Culture, Biz Model or Marketing Savvy?

Ringback tone services have been wildly successful in many parts of Asia and they are emerging as a major money maker, not to mention a major music distribution channel, in many other countries, but not in the US or the EU.

Nearly 55% of Korean subscribers have ringback tone service.  China Mobile has close to 50% adoption.  Yet, as of September, adoption rates in most of Europe were below 10% (the UK was at 2%) and US adoption was only 5%.  Since our LiveWire Mobile division provides white label managed ringback tone services and sells ringback tone service platforms, I'm obviously interested in understanding more.  And, with 30+ operators on six continents using LiveWire Mobile platforms or services, I have some access to comparative data.

A late start is only part of the story.  Korea went from 0 to 30% penetration in just nine months (April to December, 2002).  China took a bit longer as the service only became available in stages across China Mobile's 31 separate, relatively autonomous, provincial units.  That roll out took from mid-2003 to early 2004.  But by the end of 2004, China Mobile had 30 million ringback tone subscribers (then 69M by 12/05 and 144M by 8/06).  And yet after ~2 years of service, the US has only 12M subscribers or 5% penetration.

One clear difference in Korea and China, versus the US and EU, is the number of independent marketing organizations directly or indirectly promoting the new service.  I remember visiting Seoul Korea in January 2003 and having a billboard pointed out to me where a Korean rock star was advertising his latest hit and how you could make it your color ring tone. I was told there were more than 20 independent organizations providing content for SKT's Color Ring service at that time.  More significantly, revenue splits were such that these independent organizations found it worth while directly promoting their content to mobile subscribers.  That means there were 20+ marketing teams with independent activities that all served to increase subscriber awareness.

Compare this with the typical operator in the US or EU where the only source of information or content is the operator's portal and the only service promotion activities are those of the operator.  That means there is one product manager focused on ringback tones, they have a limited budget and they must compete with their associates for position on the operator's WAP deck.  Is it any wonder awareness is low?

Of course other factors also contribute to service success.  Our LiveWire Mobile team has accumulated a set of best practices based on discussions and consulting work with operators around the world.  They have a formal service offer of course, but I'll endeavor to summarize some of their learning in a future blog post.

LiveWire Mobile — new brand for well established business

This morning, NMS Communications launched LiveWire Mobile as a new brand for our mobile applications business.  I'm leery of re-branding exercises but this was long overdue as our mobile applications business is substantially different and independent of our traditional developer focused business.  Now LiveWire Mobile is operating as a distinct division of NMS with this new logo:

LiveWire Mobile focuses on mobile personalization services, including our well established ringback tones business.  That makes LiveWire Mobile a market leader from inception, as our ringback tone service is deployed with over 30 operators around the world.  The most recently new operator announcement also came today — it's Virgin Mobile USA.

Mobile Personalization

Mobile personalization services hit some years ago with ringtones and wall papers.  Many think of ringtones as a content business, and yes, there is a content sale in many cases.  But whether it's ringtones or ringback tones, the key motivation is the human desire to personalize our possessions and our environment. 

Today, ringtones are widespread and revenue growth is slowing.  However, ringback tones are still in the early growth phase, at least in Europe and North America.  Ringback tone penetration is over 55% in Korea, but less than 10% in the US.

Besides the established ringback tones base, LiveWire Mobile has plans for additional network-based message and subscriber-focused personalization services — stay tuned.

UPDATED:  Here's the link to a press release with more info (in PR prose...).

Managed Storage Futures

Recently I wrote about differences in the exponential growth rates of computing and networking and promised to say more about how these differences cause substantial shifts in the technology landscape.  Managed storage is one example.  The relevant doubling rates (from that earlier post) are:

Doubling Rates

Technology Measure	Months
Computing performance	18
Storage capacity	12
Networking performance	15
Access connectivity	20-26

The increase in storage capacity per dollar has been phenomenal and is one of the reasons that Google can offer Gbytes of free storage for email and that Amazon can offer their Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3) at extremely low rates.

But it's also caused headaches for IT directors, as installed equipment becomes obsolete long before it's fully depreciated, and employees and department heads grip about inflated internal billing rates for storage.  Pity the IT staffer who sends a broadcast message justifying corporate email storage limits because "it costs the company X cents per megabyte per month."  I've seen such messages, and the employee ridicule they engender.

This sounds like a perfect opportunity for a managed service — provide an interface that looks a storage area network or network attached storage, using multiple (for reliability and arbitrage) Internet-based storage services to provide the actual storage.  But now differential growth rates become a factor.

Storage costs decline a bit more rapidly than the cost of Internet transit.  So, already it's the case that network-based storage is extremely low cost for backup but less affordable for transactions.

But the real problem is the cost of access connectivity.  If you're selling managed services to IT departments, you need to provide services at their premises.  Local connectivity is not fast, cheap or reliable, and the pace at which it improves is glacial in comparison with storage or Internet transit.

Has this prevented the emergence of managed storage solutions?  Of course not.  But most existing solutions focus on remotely managing equipment that's physically on the enterprise premises.

Is there opportunity for network-based managed services.  Also, yes.  But you will need considerable focus on local connectivity, both for the numbers you use in your business plan and for the specifics of how you implement the service.  Some thoughts:  interface your managed service via a remotely managed on-premise box that includes caching?  use a dedicated access link to guarantee QoS?  ???

In any event, three years from now, you can count of disk storage being ~8X more affordable, Internet transit being perhaps 4x more affordable, but local connectivity only 2x or 2.5x.  Don't give up your great  business idea, but plan accordingly.