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November 29, 2006


K T Cat

If you read Mark Steyn at all, you will recognize that one thing that China will want very soon is children.

I would argue that they will hit an infrastructure ceiling pretty soon between their demographic problems and their environmental difficulties.

A more interesting read might be "What does Argentina want?" I blogged a short thought piece here.



I haven't read Mark Steyn, but I have looked in some detail at the demographics of a number of countries. I agree China is going to get old before they get rich and, even if their birth rate went up next year, they are facing a demographic problem, i.e. an elderly population, by 2040. But I don't see 2040 as "very soon." Meanwhile, for the last 15+ years, China's per capita GDP has been growing rapidly, say 8%-10% per year. There is no demographic reason why they can't keep that up for another decade or two.

And, in the next twenty years, we might well see substantial increases in freedom and enough economic success to address the environmental difficulties most developing economies face. But then I'm an optimist. :-)

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