Apple innovates -- think GUI interfaces, desktop publishing or personal portable media. But in each case, their lead is transitory. An article by Walter Mossberg in this morning's Wall Street Journal might suggest their iPod lead is secure, but it's not.
Mossberg has a negative review of Sprint Nextel's new Music Store which offers full track downloads to selected 3G mobile phones. Mossberg is upset by the price, $2.50 per song, which he attributes to
a lethal combination of two industries many consumers believe typically charge too much. One is the bumbling recording industry, which is seeking to raise prices in the fledgling legal downloading market even as it continues to bleed from free, illegal downloading. The other is the cellphone carriers, or, as I like to call them, "the Soviet ministries," which too often treat their customers as captive and refuse to allow open competition for services they offer over their networks.
The full story is available on the WSJ's website, but only to paying WSJ subscribers! :-)
The success of iPod/iTunes came up in a breakout discussion I chaired at the WTN conference earlier this week. While Americans were captivated by Apple's success, Petrus Pennamen, founder and CEO of Leiki Ltd. (Finland) pointed out the iPod boom has perhaps 18 months to go, at most. Apple's total iPod sales are perhaps 15M-20M units versus 800M mobile phones this year alone. Phones are replaced frequently (18-24 months) and phones with tons of storage are emerging.
In the US it may take an extra year or so, vs. Europe, because US mobile phone distribution remains within the service provider's walled garden. But in a competitive market, WiFi, VoIP and fixed-mobile convergence will soon break that barrier.
If there's one device I'm going to carry when I leave the house, it's my mobile phone. Any other portable function that can merge with the mobile, will.
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