For those of us in highly developed countries, the Internet is the biggest thing that's happened in our lifetime. But we're the privileged few.
In developing economies (more than 3/4 of the world's population), the big story is mobile phones. Over the past ten years, phone service has reached more people (for the first time) than the Internet. And the economic and social impact of getting a phone, or just access to a phone, is substantial -- both for individuals and for national economies. As I've pointed out in the past, it's now well established that investment in telecom infrastructure is more productive than other investment, by a substantial margin. (More supporting research here).
Part of the advantage comes from low costs. A complete green-field GSM deployment can be profitable with as little as US$5 average monthly revenue per user (ARPU). And costs are falling, of course. In 2004, new mobile phones were available for as little as $50 on the black market, i.e. that's the selling price w/o taxes, and used phones for $20. Now a recent GSM Association initiative promises to drive new handset costs below $30.
To cover these costs, phone calls are frequently resold to friends and neighbors, so one phone serves multiple people. And because economic advantages of phone service are so large, people are willing to spend a greater proportion of their income on phone service.
Another advantage phones over the Web is voice -- many people are illiterate but still quickly learn to use a mobile phone.
Yes, the Internet is really important and it will be the biggest story of the 21st century. But for the vast majority of mankind, for at least the next decade, mobile phone service is the communications revolution that counts.
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