Skype has been widely discussed in the blogsphere since Niklas Zennstrom, Skype's CEO, spoke at VON Canada 12 days ago. [You can download his presentation (PowerPoint, .ppt file) courtesy of Jeff Pulver.] Steve Smith's recent post provides a good set of links to much of the discussion. To his list, I would add Tom Evslin's posts here, here & here, and Martin Geddes' additional insights (not mentioned by Steve) here, here, here & here.
My problem -- there appears to be a tacit assumption that Skype's success will give Skype the kind of customer lock-in that Microsoft has achieved with their Windows franchise. Wrong!
There is a fundamental difference between operating systems and IP-communications. You only run one operating system on your computer. You can easy run multiple IP-Communications clients on the same computer at the same time.
Today I run three instant messenger clients at all times, because there are groups I participate in who happen to use different instant messenger networks. It doesn't matter. The services are all free. The user interfaces are very similar. The overhead to install an additional IM client is very small. The same will apply to Skype competitors, when they emerge.
For now, Skype is building a brand. Their product works better than anything else in the market, they're making good use of the viral marketing inherently available to any communications product, and their open APIs foster 3rd party developers who are extending their eco-system in myriad directions. I use Skype and I look forward to their success. But there is nothing to prevent me from running Skype and a new competitor's software at the same time on the same PC and the same Internet connection.
The one opening Skype may have to achieve lock-in is with limited function hardware devices like PDAs and cell phones. To the extent that adding applications on some these devices requires cooperation from the device manufacturer, Skype has a potential path to lock people into their eco-system.
Following the news in Skype Journal, it's clear such devices will shortly emerge. But in the longer term, cell phone manufacturers would rather present open interfaces to support multiple applications.
Skype is great. They're well on their way to becoming a major, major player in the communications market and that means they are building an important brand. But no amount of success will give them a lock-in equivalent to Microsoft's Windows franchise.
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